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Cylinsier
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 Posted: Sun Mar 21, 2010 9:04 am Post subject: |
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My bracket is garbage.
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ellipses
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| Posted: Sun Mar 21, 2010 9:27 am Post subject: |
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You can say that again.
I'm still only 4 wins behind the guy who is number 1 in our pool... no one saw that kansas thing coming
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dick
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| Posted: Sun Mar 21, 2010 10:43 am Post subject: |
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I lost Kansas and Nova from my final four. I can still win if Kentucky beats Syracuse in the final. I'm not in a big company pool. Only 18 of us in mine.
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busdriver
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| Posted: Sun Mar 21, 2010 12:13 pm Post subject: |
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| Cylinsier wrote: | | My bracket is garbage. |
I have't lost yet |
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amom
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| Posted: Sun Mar 21, 2010 12:51 pm Post subject: |
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In my case, you can't lose if you don't play.  I dislike college basketball.
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busdriver
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| Posted: Sun Mar 21, 2010 1:22 pm Post subject: |
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| amom wrote: | | In my case, you can't lose if you don't play. I dislike college basketball. |
That is why I haven't lost yet, more fun to cheer for who ever you are watching instead of who you have picked. 
Last night I cheered like crazy for the team that beat Kansas, otherwise I would have picked Kansas and been sad  |
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Cylinsier
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| Posted: Wed Mar 24, 2010 8:58 am Post subject: |
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So anyone else hear about this 17 year old kid who still has a perfect bracket? He's apparently autistic but also a math savant. He entered his bracket into a contest run by CBS (unfortunately, one without a prize), and they're saying he's the only person in the nation who's bracket is still perfect.
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dick
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| Posted: Wed Mar 24, 2010 9:00 am Post subject: |
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I saw that on the news. I chuckle at the autistic math wiz aspect. Its blind luck... that is all.
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Cylinsier
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| Posted: Wed Mar 24, 2010 9:06 am Post subject: |
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I don't know. He claims to have worked it out statistically in his head...and he hasn't been wrong yet. He has Purdue winning it all. To the bookie!
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dick
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| Posted: Wed Mar 24, 2010 9:10 am Post subject: |
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To that, I say... I'm a bookie! Bring it on!
Lets see him work it out statistically again next year. Until he has a larger sample size than one, I'm calling it being lucky and random as chit.
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Brant
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| Posted: Wed Mar 24, 2010 9:46 am Post subject: |
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I was really beginning to think the guy might have super intellectual powers - until you mentioned the Purdue thing.
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ellipses
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| Posted: Wed Mar 24, 2010 10:02 am Post subject: |
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I heard this on dve this morning... I call luck.
What statistical inputs would have shown that Kansas would lose to Northern Iowa, for example? The whole rankings system going INTO the tournament are generated by rock-solid statistical measurements. To gain a certain "insight" into the tournament beyond that requires something intangible... because statistically speaking, the higher seeded team should win. There are incompatible inefficiencies, of course... does a highly rated offensive team with mediocre defense beat a superb defensive team with a poor offense? And to what degree is a defense considered mediocre, etc?
It's impressive that he is loss-less... but I question the idea that his run is due to some mathematicking on his part.
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Cylinsier
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| Posted: Wed Mar 24, 2010 10:11 am Post subject: |
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Yes, but those statistics were compiled and interpreted by human beings. Math is definite, but human interpretation is inherently flawed. People with autism that also display savant tendencies often test way off the charts in terms of IQ. In other words, this kid is probably smarter than any one of the sports experts that compiled the stats professionally, and he may be smarter than many of them put together. Just because his stats are different than the official stats does not mean his stats are luck.
I'm mostly playing devil's advocate here, but I'd be willing to buy my own story if he completes a perfect run.
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dick
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| Posted: Wed Mar 24, 2010 10:32 am Post subject: |
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| Cylinsier wrote: | In other words, this kid is probably smarter than any one of the sports experts that compiled the stats professionally, and he may be smarter than many of them put together. Just because his stats are different than the official stats does not mean his stats are luck.
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I was following along until the last part here. You mean the interpretation of the stats, right? Whether this kid, or a professional compiled the stats, they would be exactly the same. If Butler has 30 pts and 12 boards according to the official stat keeper, there is no way for the kid to say, No, he had 33 pts and 15 boards.
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Cylinsier
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| Posted: Wed Mar 24, 2010 10:36 am Post subject: |
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Which is more valuable in determining a team's skill? Points, rebounds, steals etc? In what combination? What factor does average height of players play into it? What about the distance each team has to travel to get to the game? What about the proximity of fans to the game? And the reputation of teams to win or lose if they are playing with fans present? And their reputation of each team's coaching staff? And who is injured? And how each team plays when they have an injury? Its a lot more complex than just points and boards. Pretty sure there is no agreed upon objective formula for which stats are most important and which are just details.
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